But I think everyone is wondering and worried that if China does get involved, how quickly could that escalate things? China seems to be trying to straddle a line here where they are not necessarily picking a side and trying to figure out a way to stay out of this. Most: You mentioned China, which is interesting, and I wanted to ask you about that. But at the same time, the United States and China and several other countries are obviously trying to hang back and trying to urge restraint, which at least bodes well, I think, for the prospects of avoiding a World War III. So what does this all mean for the current situation? I don’t think necessarily to get a world war you need the United States per se involved, but world wars are defined by their broad scope, by the sheer number of countries involved.Īnd so, even if the United States stays on the sidelines, there is some potential for escalation, some potential for World War III. World War II arguably began when Germany invaded Poland and other countries came to Poland’s defense. World War I began because of a fight between Serbia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire that then drew in other countries. I think it’s important to remember that things like the First World War and Second World War actually began with localized conflicts between regional major powers and minor powers. Most: Will it be World War III if the United States is not involved, or does it take the US involvement actively and militarily for that to be a World War III?
And right now the conflict, at least is confined to Ukraine. But we’re still several steps away: the United States is not actively involved, China’s not actively involved. So I can understand why people feel we might be on the verge of World War III. Really, some of the most intense attention to such issues that we’ve seen since the end of World War II. We have a conflict between two different states that is drawing more and more attention from external actors. So right now, we have what could be considered an internationalized conflict. And the United States and its NATO allies are obviously aiding the Ukrainians, though trying to stay out of the fight directly, just as Russia is trying to draw upon Chinese support indirectly for its efforts in Ukraine. Right now, Russia has obviously invaded Ukraine, and Russian and Ukrainian forces are obviously engaged in some really brutal, thuggish combat. And I still think we’re still several steps away from something akin to World War I or World War II. So obviously we’re a bit closer to World War III than we were back in December before Russia invaded Ukraine. The question that seems to be on a lot of people’s minds right now is: how close are we to World War III? Can you talk to us about that?
Joshua Shifrinson: Thanks for having me, Doug, it’s a pleasure to be here. Pardee School of Global Studies associate professor of international relations.ĭoug Most: Joshua, thanks for joining us. More than 75 years after World War II ended, are we on the verge of another world war? To understand the current situation and how it compares to the wars of the first half of the 20th century, Doug Most, BU Today executive editor, spoke with Joshua Shifrinson, a BU Frederick S. As Russia turns to more devastating tactics and Ukrainian calls for NATO to establish a no-fly zone go unmet, the war has reached a stalemate, raising concerns about whether fighting could spill over into neighboring countries. Now more than a month later, hundreds of civilians and thousands of soldiers have been killed and roughly 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced by the conflict. How close are we to World War III? After US officials warned for several weeks of a potential Russian invasion, on February 24, Russian forces began to pour into Ukraine, launching rocket attacks on major cities, including the capital, Kyiv. “I think calls for a no-fly zone are an understandable response to the humanitarian tragedy unfolding ,” says Shifrinson, “but at the same time, I think people have not fully thought through the dangers involved.”ĭana Ferrante: This is Question of the Week from BU Today.The United States had tried to deter Russia with the threat of sanctions, but Putin still decided the stakes were worth invading Ukraine. “Economic sanctions are a really poor tool for coercing other countries,” he says.We are now closer to World War III than we were last year, Shifrinson says, but are still “several steps away from a conflict akin to World Wars I and II.”.
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